Critical Duration Index: Anticipating Project Delays from Deterministic Schedule Information

Classical scheduling techniques are well-known to underestimate the average project duration, yet they remain widely used in practice due their simplicity. In this paper, new Critical Duration Index (CDI) is proposed. This index indirectly allows anticipation for probability of a ending late, as well duration extension compared with deterministic estimate. The accuracy two simple regression expressions that use CDI was tested on representative data sets 4,100 artificial and 108 empirical (real) projects. Results show these outperformed only alternative found literature. Besides allowing enhanced forecasting possibilities, calculating requires basic information available at planning stage. It can thus be easily adopted by managers improve estimates over prior techniques.Practical ApplicationsClassical like Gantt charts or critical path method known duration. However, we have proposed (CDI). later than estimate produced chart method. also an estimation how much longer might take completed, is, delay. real sets. Our results one forecast delay, Hence, it other techniques.